FHN Financial Inflation Lab: July 2026

The June CPI and PPI surprised significantly to the downside, alleviating concerns the Fed would feel compelled to raise rates at this month’s meeting. Smoothing the data moderates the implied disinflation, but the drop in both indices was so large and so broad that the case to tighten policy anytime soon is considerably reduced. The Fed can stay patient as upcoming months of data show whether June was a fluke or the start of a sustained disinflationary trend.

Click here to read this issue of the Inflation Lab.