FHN Financial Economic Weekly: Friday, November 6, 2026

In part II of our forecast this week, we discuss our expectation for rate hikes in December, March, and June. The midterm election results imply gridlock, but because current tax and spend levels are unsustainable, there is still material risk fiscal deficits will continue on an unsustainable course. The paths of oil prices and AI investment will also be key drivers of how the broader Treasury market evolves through next year.

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