Fed Risks Tilt Hawkish
This week, of all the risks affecting Fed policy, one that should get more attention is the number of hawks among voting members next year. Combined with an unusual number of vacancies, it could make a difference. Also this week, you probably know inflation accounted for a lot of the October retail sales gain, but it turns out it was even worse after we matched the components of sales to the prices of those particular goods and services. Real retail sales barely rose at all. Finally, with Congressional focus far from cycle management, the weight on the Fed is even heavier. The Economic Weekly will not be published next week and AM Comments will be sporadic. Regular publication resumes after Thanksgiving Weekend.