FHN Financial Economic Weekly

Chris Low, Sophia Kearney-Lederman, Will Compernole, and Mark Streiber
Restrictive Policy and the Neutral Rate

FOMC participants are getting more realistic about the inflation outlook. As Governor Chris Waller said this week, he needs to see several good inflation reports to feel comfortable voting for a cut, meaning it likely won’t happen until late this year or early next year. This week we are changing our rate forecast, pushing it out, with one cut in the fourth quarter and now three, rather than two, next year.

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